Price level HRC SAE import price of Vietnam now is at 625 – 627$ CFR Vietnam (China origin), 620 – 635$ CFR (Korea and Japan origin), and no new transaction from India. Local HRC producer Formosa Ha Tinh has yet to offer new price, people expect price may be at 650$ CFR Vietnam level. Nevetherless, there is also guesstimate that HRC can be at incredible 700$ level.
Main export markets of Vietnam re-rolling mills now are America and Europe due to these areas can absorb high level of price. HRC USA reaches 880$ level while HRC price in EU is average 680$. Almost re-rolling mills are under full of capacity situation till March 2021 shipment and restrict to offer commercially into the market.
In Asean markets, there are two main trends: one group of importers are extremely keen on preparing material before next price wave coming, while the remaining group stays immobile to watch out the market with the perspective of market instability. This is easy to understand while: 1. Local price reaction rhythm is always slower than international rate; 2. New Year is coming and people expect price will go down again.
Having being in the dilemma circumstance, should people book or should wait? In order to answer this question, let’s track back to the root reason why price has totally different trend compared with same period annually.
2020 is a special year. Covid made steel price hit the bottom, after the first stability, sellers lifted up the price but buyers rejected that level. As domino effect, local producers in most of market, especially in America and Europe cut off the capacity due to bad consumption signals in the market. However, Covid just postpones the demand not make projects disappeared. So now when whole world is coming back to normal situation after long time getting familiar with Covid, a vast of projects start simultaneously. This causes shortage of demand in the market while stock rate in almost market is at low level, except India.
Coming along with Paris Agreement about limiting the global warming, the scrap price shoots up to level 400$ CFR Asean, which is indeed understandable to demonstrate why HRC can reach 650$ and even further.
The huge question is when will the market get back to its trajectory?
March/April shipment is newest offer time from Vietnam. As normal observation, dry season April, May and June have the highest demand. At that time, those demand might level off the market price. However, under shortage raw material supply context in all continents, the price will still increase till April then only be stable by May, 2021…
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