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As a country with a developed steel industry providing more than 50% of global steel output, however, China is now massively exporting steel, causing concerns about global oversupply. The main reason comes from the weakening of the real estate market, which causes the country's domestic consumption to decline. Join MRS Steel to learn more through the article below!China's steel industry boosts exportsAccording to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 2 months of 2024, China exported nearly 16 million tons of steel, an increase of 32.6% over the same period last year. This is also considered the highest steel export level of the Chinese steel industry from 2016 until now.According to Nikkei Asia, China's steel exports this year will equal or exceed last year's level, as China is on track to export about 90 million tons of steel and closer to 110 million tons in 2015, when it will witness an increase in anti-dumping measures around the world. This shows that the Chinese government is gradually stimulating the country's economic recovery.China just reported its highest steel export figures in eight yearsCurrently, China provides about 55% of the world's steel output. Therefore, even a small increase in exports can lead to downward pressure on prices in world markets. Therefore, the Chinese steel industry's promotion of exports has affected the steel industries of other countries, especially Southeast Asian countries, which are China's main export markets. In September 2023, the country's steel exports to Thailand increased by about 60% year-on-year, with exports to Malaysia increasing by about 80%. The amount of steel exported to Indonesia doubled and to Vietnam more than quadrupled.Pressure for Vietnam's steel industryA large amount of imported steel from China continuously floods the Vietnamese market, causing great pressure on the domestic steel industry. In just the first 2 months of 2024, the amount of steel imported from China reached 1.8 million tons, of which Vietnam's HRC alone imported from China reached 1.4 million tons, accounting for 74.2% of the total amount of HRC imported in the first 2 months of 2024.The reality of China's steel imports increasing sharply in the context of Vietnam enjoying an import and export tax of 0%. Trade defense measures have been lifted; other steel products, such as galvanized steel sheets, color steel sheets, steel pipes, prestressed steel,... are not subject to any trade defense measures. Facing pressure from imported steel, since 2023, the Vietnam Steel Association has made recommendations to the government to strictly control the import of steel products into the Vietnamese market.Chinese steel exports a lot, causing pressure on Vietnamese steelAs China increases steel exports, the country is turning to high-value-added products, putting pressure on domestic steel producers such as Hoa Phat, Hoa Sen, Ton Dong A,... Once again, Vietnam's steel industry faces a big challenge when it has to compete with cheap steel sources from China. This raises a warning bell for Vietnam's steel industry to have appropriate policies to ensure its development. development of domestic steel enterprises.Above is the information that MRS Steel sends to you about the problem of the world steel industry having excess supply because the leading country in steel production, China, is promoting exports. With China promoting exports, it not only affects Vietnam's steel industry but also the steel industry of other countries.

In the context of inflation and global economic recession, the world's largest mining company BHP (Australia) still has uncertainty about the prospects of the steel industry due to the factor of China - the world’s largest steel producer. Below are the top 7 main reasons that make it difficult for BHP to predict the global steel market in 2024.1. High steel production and exports from China and India in 20232023 was the fifth consecutive year that China recorded crude steel output above 1 billion tons thanks to sustainable demand from non-residential. Chinese steel industry has seen strong growth in net exports with total turnover reaching its highest level in the past 7 years. Exports rose to 98 million tons in 2023, the highest since 2016.The Indian steel industry in 2023 also marked significant growth with crude steel output reaching 140 million tons, an increase of 12% compared to 2022. The Indian steel market was considered the only bright spot on the Asian steel map in 2023 amid weak demand and persistent oversupply in the region.2. Strong blast furnace usage rate in ChinaChina's blast furnace (BF) utilization rate averaged 88% in the first half of 2023 and 90% in the second 6 months, reaching 89.1% for the whole year. BHP explained the reason for the high BF rate is because:Production at electric arc furnaces (EAF) is limited due to lack of competitiveness, weak demand for construction steel, reduced scrap availability and loss of profits.Abundant steel supply in the global export marketActivity of the flat steel industry in 2023 was relatively stable with demand increasing by 2% compared to 2022, of which the second half of 2023 increased by 3.2% y/y.3. Low real profits of Chinese steel manufacturers The profit margin of steel mills in 2023 was still very low. BPH estimated margins for BF-BFO furnaces to average around $7/ton in 2022 but fell to -$6/ton in 2023.4. Stable China's steel output forecast in 2024 BHP's preliminary estimate of China's crude steel production in 2024 is in the range of 1-1.1 billion tons. However, output could still be affected by possible mandatory production cuts in China. Overall, up to now, BHP still does not have solid data on the outlook for Chinese crude steel output in 2024.5. Decline China's steel exports in 2024 BHP predicts China's net steel exports in 2024 will decrease compared to 2023 at more than 87 million tons. The reason is that Beijing aims to limit steel production, but it is unlikely to fall below 54 million tons due to China's price advantage in the global steel market.6. Uneven demand of the end-user sector in China BHP weighs in on the outlook for end-user demand for steel in China in 2024, including the pace of development, scale and structure of the housing construction recovery as well as the ratio of steel usage per unit of GDP. Currently, BHP predicts real GDP will increase from 4.5 - 5%, after growth of 5.2% in 2023. The fields of housing, infrastructure, machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobiles and construction ships, consumer goods,... continue to decline.7. China to enhance steel reservesIn the long term, BHP believes that China will increase its accumulated steel inventory by 1.5 - 1.75 times when the urbanization rate reaches about 80%. The Australian mining firm also expects China to improve living standards similar to those of countries currently on the edge of the high-income bracket by mid-century.Above is the latest news about predicting the world steel situation in 2024. Don't forget to follow and read more useful articles on the topic of Vietnamese and global steel at MRS Steel!

Overcapacity in China has led to a surge in steel exports, affecting the consumption of domestic factories in Southeast Asia. According to short-term forecasts, the Southeast Asian steel market will be flooded with cheap Chinese steel, some of which is sold at prices lower than production prices through dumping behavior.According to the Secretary General of the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute and former Deputy Minister of International Trade and Industry, expectations for the strong post-COVID-19 recovery in China's real estate and construction sector have not materialized. Meanwhile, steel output is expected to increase by 5% to more than 1 billion tons without any significant control policies. Even, Chinese steel exports are expected to reach a record high of 89 million tons. Excess capacity leads to "dumping" and the massive export of cheap steel to Southeast Asian countries.According to data from the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI), total production capacity in the 2029-2030 period will reach 182.5 million tons, 2.3 times higher than the current capacity (78.1 million tons). Another obstacle is that China's construction and real estate sectors are unlikely to recover, so exporting steel to China is also difficult.In 2022, ASEAN-6's steel demand was 75.1 million tons, crude steel capacity was 78.1 million tons, output reached 50.5 million tons with capacity utilization at 64.6% (below the efficiency level of 80%). Steel imports reached 43.8 million tons, equivalent to 58% of demand. In Malaysia, factories face an even worse situation when they fall into a situation of overcapacity of more than 60%. Domestic demand was 5.4 million tons, capacity was about 10.6 million tons, while output is 3.6 million tons. Malaysia's top 4 long steel manufacturing companies also reported a loss of nearly 199 million USD in 6 quarters. From 2018 to 2022, the total losses of the 4 factories amounted to 1.35 billion RM. The new company entering Malaysia uses blast furnace (BF) technology that pollutes 3 times more than the EAF system. This negatively affects Malaysia's Net Zero roadmap by 2050.

China's iron ore imports in November 2023 reached 102.74 million tons, up 3.37% over the previous month. Import volume in the first 11 months of 2023 increased by 6.2% over the same period. China's steel exports in November 2023 increased by 43.29% over the same period, steel imports in November decreased by 18.13% over the same period in 2022.According to Customs data, China's iron ore imports in November rose 3.94% year-on-year as steel mills' profit margins improved and the recovery of the CNY, which encouraged the purchase of steel production raw materials.As the world's largest consumer of iron ore, China imported 102.74 million tons of iron ore in November compared to 99.39 million tons in October 2023. November's imports maintained a high level for the fourth consecutive month and marked the fifth instance of surpassing 100 million tons in 2023.Mysteel’s data showed that iron ore inventories at surveyed mills increased 3.5%, reaching 93.02 million tons at the end of November. The Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciated 2.5% against the US dollar in November 2023.Customs data also revealed that China's iron ore imports in the first 11 months of 2023 increased 6.2% to a record high of 1.08 billion tons. Jiangsu Fushi Data Research Institute predicted that iron ore imports in December may remain at roughly the same level as last month as factories need supplies to meet production requirements during the New Year holiday in early January 2024. Buyers will settle their shipments via sea freight before the end of the year amid rising CNY, which means volumes this month will not be small.Regarding steel product exports, China recorded 8.01 million tons in November, up 43.3% over the previous year and 0.88% over October 2023. Besides, China imported 614,000 tons of steel products last month, down 18% compared to November 20233. The total imports for the first 11 months of 2023 stood at 6.98 million tons, down 29.2% compared to a year earlier.Where to contact reputable Vietnamese steel importers?MRS Steel provides solutions for importing Vietnamese steel to many countries around the world. We have more than 12 years of experience in the field of sourcing and purchasing support for importers from the US, Europe, Australia, ASEAN,... helping customers connect with Vietnam's largest steel manufacturers at competitive prices.Currently, thanks to favorable trade policies and tariffs in import and export, Vietnam has become the main import market for many countries around the world.With the 13th largest crude steel output worldwide and increasingly invested and improved production technology, Vietnamese steel has a leading position in the international market. Therefore, customers are completely assured about product quality and international standards when choosing Vietnamese steel.For any need to learn about the market or steel products from Vietnam, customers can contact MRS Steel via Whatsapp: +84 76 911 2358 or Email vanloc@mrssteel.com.vn for the most detailed advice.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has just announced receiving information from India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies about issuing a questionnaire for the sunset review of countervailing duties on stainless steel welded pipes from China and Vietnam.The Trade Remedies Authority specifies that a sunset review is conducted just before the expiration of a 5-year period from the date of the official decision on anti-dumping duties or from the date of the review results (if the review covers both anti-dumping and damage).The tax imposition was issued by the Indian Ministry of Finance and became effective for a period of 5 years starting on September 17, 2019. The goods under review are stainless steel welded pipes falling under the HS codes: 7306 40 00, 7306 61 00, 7306 69 00, 7304 11 10, 7304 11 90, 7304 41 00, 7304 51 10, 7304 90 00, 7305 11 29, 7305 90 99, 7306 11 00, 7306 21 00, 7306 29 19, 7306 30 90, 7306 50 00, 7306 90 11, 7306 90 19, 7306 90 90. The HS codes do not limit the scope of the products under review.According to India's regulations, after 5 years of application, upon the request of the domestic manufacturing sector's representative, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies must conduct a final review to assess the necessity of continuing the anti-subsidy measures or to consider the possibility of a recurrence of subsidization practices or damage to the domestic manufacturing sector if the anti-subsidy duty on stainless steel welded pipes from Vietnam is terminated.The initiation of the sunset review investigation on the anti-subsidy tax on stainless steel welded pipes from Vietnam took place on September 30, 2023, according to the Directorate General of Trade Remedies. The official submission of the questionnaire for investigation to manufacturers, exporters and related parties occurred on November 28, 2023, by the Indian Directorate. Consequently, concerned parties have 7 days from the official date of sending the questionnaire to submit opinions on the security measures of the petition within the required file. Within 15 days from the official date of sending the questionnaire, entities need to provide input on the petition, the scope of the investigated goods, and propose product management code numbers. Furthermore, the respondents are expected to submit their responses to the investigation questionnaire and relevant information within 30 days from the official date the Directorate General of Trade Remedies sent out the questionnaire.The period for conducting the review on the anti-subsidy duty on stainless steel welded pipes from Vietnam spans from April 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023. Regarding the content related to damages, the investigation period will additionally cover the three most recent financial years: 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022.The Bureau of Trade Remedies recommends that relevant exporters thoroughly study all related documents and information regarding the case. Full and comprehensive cooperation with the Indian Directorate General of Trade Remedies is advised. Register as an involved party, respond to the questionnaire within the specified timeframe and format and maintain regular contact with the Bureau of Trade Remedies to receive timely information and support.