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In the context of inflation and global economic recession, the world's largest mining company BHP (Australia) still has uncertainty about the prospects of the steel industry due to the factor of China - the world’s largest steel producer. Below are the top 7 main reasons that make it difficult for BHP to predict the global steel market in 2024.1. High steel production and exports from China and India in 20232023 was the fifth consecutive year that China recorded crude steel output above 1 billion tons thanks to sustainable demand from non-residential. Chinese steel industry has seen strong growth in net exports with total turnover reaching its highest level in the past 7 years. Exports rose to 98 million tons in 2023, the highest since 2016.The Indian steel industry in 2023 also marked significant growth with crude steel output reaching 140 million tons, an increase of 12% compared to 2022. The Indian steel market was considered the only bright spot on the Asian steel map in 2023 amid weak demand and persistent oversupply in the region.2. Strong blast furnace usage rate in ChinaChina's blast furnace (BF) utilization rate averaged 88% in the first half of 2023 and 90% in the second 6 months, reaching 89.1% for the whole year. BHP explained the reason for the high BF rate is because:Production at electric arc furnaces (EAF) is limited due to lack of competitiveness, weak demand for construction steel, reduced scrap availability and loss of profits.Abundant steel supply in the global export marketActivity of the flat steel industry in 2023 was relatively stable with demand increasing by 2% compared to 2022, of which the second half of 2023 increased by 3.2% y/y.3. Low real profits of Chinese steel manufacturers The profit margin of steel mills in 2023 was still very low. BPH estimated margins for BF-BFO furnaces to average around $7/ton in 2022 but fell to -$6/ton in 2023.4. Stable China's steel output forecast in 2024 BHP's preliminary estimate of China's crude steel production in 2024 is in the range of 1-1.1 billion tons. However, output could still be affected by possible mandatory production cuts in China. Overall, up to now, BHP still does not have solid data on the outlook for Chinese crude steel output in 2024.5. Decline China's steel exports in 2024 BHP predicts China's net steel exports in 2024 will decrease compared to 2023 at more than 87 million tons. The reason is that Beijing aims to limit steel production, but it is unlikely to fall below 54 million tons due to China's price advantage in the global steel market.6. Uneven demand of the end-user sector in China BHP weighs in on the outlook for end-user demand for steel in China in 2024, including the pace of development, scale and structure of the housing construction recovery as well as the ratio of steel usage per unit of GDP. Currently, BHP predicts real GDP will increase from 4.5 - 5%, after growth of 5.2% in 2023. The fields of housing, infrastructure, machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobiles and construction ships, consumer goods,... continue to decline.7. China to enhance steel reservesIn the long term, BHP believes that China will increase its accumulated steel inventory by 1.5 - 1.75 times when the urbanization rate reaches about 80%. The Australian mining firm also expects China to improve living standards similar to those of countries currently on the edge of the high-income bracket by mid-century.Above is the latest news about predicting the world steel situation in 2024. Don't forget to follow and read more useful articles on the topic of Vietnamese and global steel at MRS Steel!

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has just announced receiving information from India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies about issuing a questionnaire for the sunset review of countervailing duties on stainless steel welded pipes from China and Vietnam.The Trade Remedies Authority specifies that a sunset review is conducted just before the expiration of a 5-year period from the date of the official decision on anti-dumping duties or from the date of the review results (if the review covers both anti-dumping and damage).The tax imposition was issued by the Indian Ministry of Finance and became effective for a period of 5 years starting on September 17, 2019. The goods under review are stainless steel welded pipes falling under the HS codes: 7306 40 00, 7306 61 00, 7306 69 00, 7304 11 10, 7304 11 90, 7304 41 00, 7304 51 10, 7304 90 00, 7305 11 29, 7305 90 99, 7306 11 00, 7306 21 00, 7306 29 19, 7306 30 90, 7306 50 00, 7306 90 11, 7306 90 19, 7306 90 90. The HS codes do not limit the scope of the products under review.According to India's regulations, after 5 years of application, upon the request of the domestic manufacturing sector's representative, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies must conduct a final review to assess the necessity of continuing the anti-subsidy measures or to consider the possibility of a recurrence of subsidization practices or damage to the domestic manufacturing sector if the anti-subsidy duty on stainless steel welded pipes from Vietnam is terminated.The initiation of the sunset review investigation on the anti-subsidy tax on stainless steel welded pipes from Vietnam took place on September 30, 2023, according to the Directorate General of Trade Remedies. The official submission of the questionnaire for investigation to manufacturers, exporters and related parties occurred on November 28, 2023, by the Indian Directorate. Consequently, concerned parties have 7 days from the official date of sending the questionnaire to submit opinions on the security measures of the petition within the required file. Within 15 days from the official date of sending the questionnaire, entities need to provide input on the petition, the scope of the investigated goods, and propose product management code numbers. Furthermore, the respondents are expected to submit their responses to the investigation questionnaire and relevant information within 30 days from the official date the Directorate General of Trade Remedies sent out the questionnaire.The period for conducting the review on the anti-subsidy duty on stainless steel welded pipes from Vietnam spans from April 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023. Regarding the content related to damages, the investigation period will additionally cover the three most recent financial years: 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022.The Bureau of Trade Remedies recommends that relevant exporters thoroughly study all related documents and information regarding the case. Full and comprehensive cooperation with the Indian Directorate General of Trade Remedies is advised. Register as an involved party, respond to the questionnaire within the specified timeframe and format and maintain regular contact with the Bureau of Trade Remedies to receive timely information and support.

India's target to double its steel production capacity to 300 million tons by 2030 may face difficulties due to recent restrictions on scrap steel exports by the European Union. This move could directly disrupt the Indian steel industry as the country hasn't developed a strong recycling industry and relies heavily on imported scrap steel for production.The production capacity of Indian steel industry facing limitations by shortage of scrap steel supplyIndia is currently the world's second-largest producer of crude steel after China, with 124.7 million tons of crude steel in 2022. In a conference in February 2023, the Indian government set the target of increasing steel production capacity to 300 million tons by 2030. "The current 15% scrap usage will increase to nearly 25% within the next 5 years, meaning that the proportion of scrap used in steel production will increase to 50%," as stated by the Indian Steel Minister in the MRAI Material Recycling Conference 2023.Analysts predict that India's ambitious production growth target will lead to a significant demand for scrap materials. Specifically, by 2030, the demand for scrap materials is projected to reach 65 million tons per year, while the domestic scrap supply at that time is only 59 million tons per year. This raw material shortage will force the Indian steel industry to rely more on imported scrap materials to fill the gap.Forecast chart of India's scrap steel consumption demand until 2030Therefore, in 2021, the government attempted to expand the scrap steel industry by utilizing vehicles. Specifically, vehicles over 20 years old had to undergo emissions tests, and if they failed, they were recommended for disposal and used as a source of scrap steel for the manufacturing industry. Implementing the policy of collecting scrap steel from vehicles could provide the steel industry with an average of 6 million tons per year. While the policy may address recycling supply needs, in the long term, it has not achieved effectiveness because most recycling infrastructure in India is still in its early stages, and there are still very few old vehicles available for disposal.The new challenge comes from the import of scrap steelTo enhance the supply of scrap steel for production, the current import plan is considered the most feasible approach while the number of steel recycling plants in the country is being limited. In 2022 alone, India spent over 12 billion USD on importing metal scrap, and within the next 5 to 6 years, India is expected to become the world's largest importer of scrap steel, with imports reaching approximately 20 million tons by 2030. Currently, India is ranked as the second-largest scrap steel importer in the European Union, as well as in the United States, Asia, and the Middle East.Top Indian exporting scrap steel countries in the first 6 months of 2023However, India's ambitious import plan to expand steel production is facing several challenges. The European Union, a significant market for supplying scrap steel to India, is considering imposing restrictions on the export of metal scrap to reduce emissions and protect the environment. Additionally, major scrap steel exporters like the United States, Asia, and the Middle East are also contemplating export restrictions to preserve this valuable resource. Import barriers for scrap steel have hindered the Indian steel industry’s target to double its steel production capacity, forcing steel producers to search for alternative supply sources.The Indian steel industry is confronted with numerous challenges in addressing the scrap steel supply issue due to strict scrap steel export policies from the European Union. Nevertheless, the country is working on improving its recycling capacity by building a series of steel recycling plants starting in 2021. Although there are still many obstacles to increasing production capacity, India continues to seek new opportunities to expand its steel industry.In recent years, trade relations between Vietnam and India have been strengthening, particularly in the steel sector. India is considered a potential export market for Vietnam, with increasing demand for scrap steel and hot-rolled coils (HRC). In the first 9 months of 2023, India unexpectedly became the second-largest importer of HRC from Vietnam, with a production volume exceeding 386,000 tons. Based on infrastructure construction needs and the ambition to secure raw materials for production from India, the Vietnamese steel industry expects to expand its export market in the future, especially with HRC being one of its key products.

In the first 9 months of 2023, Vietnam's HRC exports exceeded 2.5 million tons, with Formosa Ha Tinh and Hoa Phat Dung Quat leading in the export market share. Additionally, crude steel exports showed a remarkable increase of over 81% compared to the previous year, reaching a volume of 1.4 million tons.Overview of Vietnam’s HRC exports from domestic steel manufacturers In the first 9 months of 2023, the steel industry's overall production of hot-rolled coil (HRC) reached 4.93 million tons, marking a 1.7% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Total sales volume was 4.95 million tons, reflecting a 4.1% increase compared to the previous year, with export quantities accounting for 50% of the total, reaching 2.559 million tons. Formosa Ha Tinh and Hoa Phat Dung Quat continued to lead the HRC sector in the country, with export figures of 1.6 million tons and 817,000 tons, respectively. It's worth noting that HRC exports have tripled compared to the same period last year, indicating a strong recovery in the Vietnamese steel industry despite the domestic steel consumption remaining relatively weak due to challenges in the real estate sector. In this context, export, especially in the HRC segment, has partially compensated for steel enterprises' domestic sales.Additionally, data reveals that Italy and India have become the two largest import markets for Vietnam’s HRC exports, with Italy importing over 840,000 tons and India importing more than 386,000 tons in the past 9 months. Furthermore, in more than 40 countries importing HRC from Vietnam, there are two Southeast Asian countries, Malaysia and Indonesia, ranking third and fourth in terms of import volume, with 378,000 tons and 244,000 tons. Previously, Vietnam's steel was predominantly consumed in the Southeast Asian region. However, since the signing of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the European market has emerged as a promising destination for Vietnamese steel exporters.The pie chart show top Vietnam’s HRC importing countries in the first 9 months of 2023While China's steel production has been continuously decreasing, India is considered as a new global steel production powerhouse, leading experts to believe that India will continue to maintain demand for HRC imports to support its manufacturing sector. Italy, which has always been a leading importer of Vietnamese steel in the European market, has shown sustained interest in Vietnam's steel. Attractive pricing from Vietnamese HRC manufacturers and the tariff benefits under the EVFTA have provided opportunities for strong steel importation by European businesses.Export of other steel segments in the first 9 months of 2023 has shown positive growthAccording to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), the export volume of other steel categories, including crude steel, finished steel, and construction steel, has increased significantly compared to the previous year. Overall, in the first 9 months of 2023, the total production of crude steel across the industry exceeded 14 million tons, despite a 13% decrease compared to the same period in 2022. However, export data indicates a remarkable 81% increase compared to the previous year, reaching a volume of 1.4 million tons.Similarly, the production and export of finished steel have seen positive changes, with production reaching 20.2 million tons, a 13.3% decrease compared to the same period in 2022, while export quantities reached nearly 6 million tons, reflecting a 22.6% increase compared to the previous year. In the case of galvanized steel, production reached 3.42 million tons in the first 9 months of 2023, a slight 3.4% decrease compared to the same period the previous year, with 3.11 million tons being sold and 1.66 million tons serving export purposes. Overall, the growth percentages in sales and exports do not significantly differ from the previous year.The production of construction steel products in the past 9 months exceeded 7.72 million tons, with production decreasing by 21.6% compared to the previous year. Sales and exports reached 7.74 million tons and 1.25 million tons, respectively, both showing a downward trend compared to the same period in 2022. In general, most real estate sectors have witnessed a global decline in investments ranging from 40% to 65% compared to the previous year, directly impacting the consumption of construction steel.The charts indicated about the exporting volumes of Vietnam steel products in 9 months of 2023Despite the current weak domestic consumption, VSA anticipates that challenging sectors such as real estate and industrial production will continue to improve in the near future due to public investment projects aiming to stimulate strong steel demand towards the end of the year. The steel market in Vietnam in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to have an upward trend, primarily due to favorable export conditions that allow enterprises to increase production.

Europe, with its well-developed steel industry and strong potential, is confidently anticipating a surge in the price of hot rolled coil in the final months of the year. Positive indicators and specific factors have created an ideal situation for steel price increases and mark the recovery of the steel industry after a challenging period.HRC price in EuropeBetween October 13th and October 20th, 2023, the price of hot rolled coil in Western Europe decreased by €10 per ton compared to the previous week, reaching a range of €610-€630 per ton. This price decrease started at the beginning of October, with a €50 per ton drop on September 29th, equivalent to 7.3%. Meanwhile, the Italian market also experienced a similar price reduction, with hot rolled coil prices dropping by €10 per ton compared to the previous week and €20 per ton compared to the end of September. The price difference between Western and Southern Europe has narrowed, and the market is facing pressure from low-cost imported hot rolled coil.Service centers and distributors are currently experiencing low sales volumes due to reduced consumer demand. The significant volume of imports from Asia and India continues to put pressure on the market, and the European automotive industry is going through a slump, significantly impacting the purchase of hot rolled coil. Some steel companies are temporarily halting operations to balance supply and demand and prevent further price declines.Despite the weak market conditions, European steel producers are reducing production capacity to maintain balance, and it is anticipated that the market may face a supply shortage in November and December, potentially leading to an increase in hot rolled coil prices.HRC prices in other marketsIn the hot rolled coil steel market, prices in major countries like the United States, China, and India have experienced notable fluctuations. In the United States, hot rolled coil prices have been trending upwards from $680-700 USD per ton to $692-720 USD per ton. This is the result of factors such as trade policies, regulations on steel imports, and domestic industry protection measures. However, prices can still vary due to factors like supply and demand in the construction and manufacturing sectors.In China, one of the largest players in the global steel market, hot rolled coil prices have remained relatively stable recently. Additionally, China's steel production policies and output can impact both domestic and export steel prices. Factors like production restrictions or policy changes may not significantly alter prices in the short term.In India, hot rolled coil steel prices are often influenced by domestic supply and demand as well as imports. Currently, hot rolled coil prices in India are stable, and economic growth and infrastructure development are creating increased demand for steel. However, factors such as trade policies and anti-dumping measures can influence steel prices in the near future.

2022 is a tough year for the world steel industry in general and Vietnam in particular because of the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation and interest rates as well as China expanding lockdowns as Covid-19 epidemic. According to the forecast of the World Steel Association, steel demand and price in the world in the first half of 2023 will have significant changes. In this article, MRS Steel will dive deeper into the situation of Vietnam's steel industry and key steel producing regions in the world today.1. Vietnam steel prices tend to decreaseAccording to a recent report of the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), the price of construction steel has just decreased by 270,000 VND/ton, the lowest in the past two months. On June 15, Hoa Phat adjusted the price of CB240 coil to 14.29 million VND/ton, the price of D10 CB300 rebar to 14.69 million VND/ton, down 200,000 VND/ton.Other brands such as Vietnam Italy, Viet Duc, Viet Nhat, Pomina also lowered the price of the two above steels similarly. Thus, from the beginning of April until now, steel price has dropped 11 times in a row with a cumulative decrease of nearly 3 million VND/ton. The continuous reduction of steel prices by factories aims to improve production and consumption in the domestic market. Data from VSA shows that in May 2023, the whole country produced more than 2.2 million tons of finished steel, up 2.3% over the previous month. Domestic consumption volume also recorded more than 2.3 million tons, up 13.6% compared to April and tended to continue to increase.Regarding the export situation in the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam sold about 2,299 million tons to foreign countries with a total value of 1.72 billion USD. Currently, Vietnam exports iron and steel to 30 markets, mainly ASEAN (36.38%), the EU (24.15%), the US (7.55%), India (5.72%) and Turkey (3.21%). 2. Asia to drive steel demand recovery 2023-2024According to the World Steel Association, the main indicators of the real estate construction industry may increase by the end of 2023 but still not significantly. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment is tending to shift to projects that focus on less steel. China's steel demand is expected to recover 2%, reach 939.3 million tons in 2023 and stay flat in 2024.Structural steel demand in ASEAN markets recorded a strong increase. Recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam began to restart delayed tourism and infrastructure projects. It is expected that the growth in steel demand of ASEAN will reach 77.1 million tons, up 6.2%, while in 2024 may increase by 5.7%.Overall, worldsteel expects steel demand in 2023 to increase by 40.8 million tons, reaching $1,8223 billion. In which, China contributed 18.4 million tons, ASEAN 4.5 million tons, Japan 2.2 million tons and South Korea 1.5 million tons.3. Steel prospect in developed and developing economiesSteel demand in developed economies such as Europe, the United States, Russia, Turkey,... has suffered a sizable contraction due to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high energy costs and monetary tightening. After a decrease of 6.2% in 2022, the steel situation is expected to be more positive with an increase of 1.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.3.1. European Union and United KingdomDespite being significantly affected by the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war, the EU's economy grew steadily by 3.5% in 2022. However, industrial activities still suffered significant losses due to high energy costs leading to a significant reduction in steel demand in 2022. In 2023, the EU steel industry is still facing many difficulties due to supply chain disruptions and currency tightening, expected to fall by 0.4%. A 5.6% rebound is expected in 2024. 3.2. USAThe US economy has taken a strong turn after the pandemic with the recovery and growth of the manufacturing and energy industries. Benefiting from the expansion of manufacturing operations, US steel demand in 2023 is expected to grow by 1.3% and then by 2.5% in 2024.3.3. IndiaAccording to the World Steel Association, India is still a bright spot in the global steel industry in 2023 thanks to managed inflation well. The automotive and consumer durables sectors are expected to grow steadily, leading to a healthy growth in steel demand at 7.3% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024.With the forecast of steel demand growth in developed and developing economies in the period of 2023-2024, it will help importers to have the most effective purchase plan. Don't forget to follow MRS Steel to keep up to date with the latest news about Vietnam and the world's steel industry. Any need to import steel from Vietnam, please contact Whatsapp: +84 76 911 2358 for the best support from MRS Steel.