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India's target to double its steel production capacity to 300 million tons by 2030 may face difficulties due to recent restrictions on scrap steel exports by the European Union. This move could directly disrupt the Indian steel industry as the country hasn't developed a strong recycling industry and relies heavily on imported scrap steel for production.The production capacity of Indian steel industry facing limitations by shortage of scrap steel supplyIndia is currently the world's second-largest producer of crude steel after China, with 124.7 million tons of crude steel in 2022. In a conference in February 2023, the Indian government set the target of increasing steel production capacity to 300 million tons by 2030. "The current 15% scrap usage will increase to nearly 25% within the next 5 years, meaning that the proportion of scrap used in steel production will increase to 50%," as stated by the Indian Steel Minister in the MRAI Material Recycling Conference 2023.Analysts predict that India's ambitious production growth target will lead to a significant demand for scrap materials. Specifically, by 2030, the demand for scrap materials is projected to reach 65 million tons per year, while the domestic scrap supply at that time is only 59 million tons per year. This raw material shortage will force the Indian steel industry to rely more on imported scrap materials to fill the gap.Forecast chart of India's scrap steel consumption demand until 2030Therefore, in 2021, the government attempted to expand the scrap steel industry by utilizing vehicles. Specifically, vehicles over 20 years old had to undergo emissions tests, and if they failed, they were recommended for disposal and used as a source of scrap steel for the manufacturing industry. Implementing the policy of collecting scrap steel from vehicles could provide the steel industry with an average of 6 million tons per year. While the policy may address recycling supply needs, in the long term, it has not achieved effectiveness because most recycling infrastructure in India is still in its early stages, and there are still very few old vehicles available for disposal.The new challenge comes from the import of scrap steelTo enhance the supply of scrap steel for production, the current import plan is considered the most feasible approach while the number of steel recycling plants in the country is being limited. In 2022 alone, India spent over 12 billion USD on importing metal scrap, and within the next 5 to 6 years, India is expected to become the world's largest importer of scrap steel, with imports reaching approximately 20 million tons by 2030. Currently, India is ranked as the second-largest scrap steel importer in the European Union, as well as in the United States, Asia, and the Middle East.Top Indian exporting scrap steel countries in the first 6 months of 2023However, India's ambitious import plan to expand steel production is facing several challenges. The European Union, a significant market for supplying scrap steel to India, is considering imposing restrictions on the export of metal scrap to reduce emissions and protect the environment. Additionally, major scrap steel exporters like the United States, Asia, and the Middle East are also contemplating export restrictions to preserve this valuable resource. Import barriers for scrap steel have hindered the Indian steel industry’s target to double its steel production capacity, forcing steel producers to search for alternative supply sources.The Indian steel industry is confronted with numerous challenges in addressing the scrap steel supply issue due to strict scrap steel export policies from the European Union. Nevertheless, the country is working on improving its recycling capacity by building a series of steel recycling plants starting in 2021. Although there are still many obstacles to increasing production capacity, India continues to seek new opportunities to expand its steel industry.In recent years, trade relations between Vietnam and India have been strengthening, particularly in the steel sector. India is considered a potential export market for Vietnam, with increasing demand for scrap steel and hot-rolled coils (HRC). In the first 9 months of 2023, India unexpectedly became the second-largest importer of HRC from Vietnam, with a production volume exceeding 386,000 tons. Based on infrastructure construction needs and the ambition to secure raw materials for production from India, the Vietnamese steel industry expects to expand its export market in the future, especially with HRC being one of its key products.

Europe, with its well-developed steel industry and strong potential, is confidently anticipating a surge in the price of hot rolled coil in the final months of the year. Positive indicators and specific factors have created an ideal situation for steel price increases and mark the recovery of the steel industry after a challenging period.HRC price in EuropeBetween October 13th and October 20th, 2023, the price of hot rolled coil in Western Europe decreased by €10 per ton compared to the previous week, reaching a range of €610-€630 per ton. This price decrease started at the beginning of October, with a €50 per ton drop on September 29th, equivalent to 7.3%. Meanwhile, the Italian market also experienced a similar price reduction, with hot rolled coil prices dropping by €10 per ton compared to the previous week and €20 per ton compared to the end of September. The price difference between Western and Southern Europe has narrowed, and the market is facing pressure from low-cost imported hot rolled coil.Service centers and distributors are currently experiencing low sales volumes due to reduced consumer demand. The significant volume of imports from Asia and India continues to put pressure on the market, and the European automotive industry is going through a slump, significantly impacting the purchase of hot rolled coil. Some steel companies are temporarily halting operations to balance supply and demand and prevent further price declines.Despite the weak market conditions, European steel producers are reducing production capacity to maintain balance, and it is anticipated that the market may face a supply shortage in November and December, potentially leading to an increase in hot rolled coil prices.HRC prices in other marketsIn the hot rolled coil steel market, prices in major countries like the United States, China, and India have experienced notable fluctuations. In the United States, hot rolled coil prices have been trending upwards from $680-700 USD per ton to $692-720 USD per ton. This is the result of factors such as trade policies, regulations on steel imports, and domestic industry protection measures. However, prices can still vary due to factors like supply and demand in the construction and manufacturing sectors.In China, one of the largest players in the global steel market, hot rolled coil prices have remained relatively stable recently. Additionally, China's steel production policies and output can impact both domestic and export steel prices. Factors like production restrictions or policy changes may not significantly alter prices in the short term.In India, hot rolled coil steel prices are often influenced by domestic supply and demand as well as imports. Currently, hot rolled coil prices in India are stable, and economic growth and infrastructure development are creating increased demand for steel. However, factors such as trade policies and anti-dumping measures can influence steel prices in the near future.

Recently, the Department of Foreign Trade of Thailand (DFT) announced an investigation into evading anti-dumping (AD) measures on hot rolled steel products, both coil and non-coil, imported from China. The investigation began on September 15, 2023, due to suspicions by the government that China was intentionally altering minor compositions of hot rolled steel to evade AD duties.1. The situation of Thai steel imports from ChinaAccording to the Ministry of Commerce report, Thailand's steel demand shows promising improvements in 2023, but domestic production is on a decline. In the first 6 months of the year, the production volume decreased by more than 10%, especially in 1st quarter 2023 where it fell by over 36%. This has led to an alarming capacity utilization rate of under 30% in Thailand's steel industry. The steel consumption data for the first five months of 2023 shows 7.17 million tons, with a domestic production of 2.81 million tons and imports of 4.99 million tons, increasing by 15.6%. Notably, the import rate of Chinese steel has risen by over 50% compared to the same period in 2022, putting tremendous competitive pressure on domestic steel products.2. Thailand intensifies investigations on hot rolled coil and non-coil steel imports from ChinaFaced with severe threats to Thailand's steel industry due to dumping and surging imports, domestic producers appealed to Thailand's Ministry of Commerce for timely measures. Consequently, on September 15, 2023, the government officially began an investigation into evasion of anti-dumping measures on hot rolled flat steel, both coil and non-coil, originating from 17 Chinese enterprises. The products under investigation are classified under HS codes as HS 7225.3090.022, 7225.3090.023, 7225.3090.024, 7225.3090.042, 7225.3090.090, 7225.4090.034, 7225.4090.090, 7226.911 0,022, 7226,9110,023, 7226,9110,024, 7226,9110. 042, 7226.9110.090, 7226.9190.022, 7226.9190.023, 7226.9190.024, 7226.9190.042 và 7226.9190.090.Previously, Thailand had also imposed numerous trade defense measures against imported goods from China to protect the interests of domestic enterprises and the national steel industry.3. Thailand importers benefit from Vietnamese steelThailand is one of Vietnam's main steel export markets, with $281.8 million in iron and steel products and $103.8 million in products made from steel in 2022. With many advantages and tax incentives, many importers have chosen Vietnamese steel for its affordable price and quality.In 2023, the DFT decided to terminate the anti-dumping duty order on alloy-coated zinc aluminum steel products from Vietnamese manufacturers like Hoa Sen Group, Nam Kim Steel Joint Stock Company, Hoa Phat One Member Limited Liability Steel Sheet Company, Vnsteel Thang Long Coated Steel Joint Stock Company, Maruichi Sun Steel Joint Stock Company, Dong A Steel Joint Stock Company, Dai Thien Loc Corporation, NS BlueScope Vietnam Limited Company, and Southern Steel Company.Earlier, on March 25, 2017, the DFT had imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on zinc-aluminum alloy-coated steel, ranging from 4.3% to 60.26%.In addition to AFTA, ACFTA, RCEP, etc., Vietnam and Thailand have participated in and signed numerous bilateral agreements to enhance their economic and trade relationships. Furthermore, both countries, being neighbors in Southeast Asia, benefit from supply chain efficiencies and transportation advantages, leading to time and cost savings.MRS Steel is a provider sourcing and delivering quality Vietnamese steel at competitive prices to global markets. If you're looking to save time and cost in understanding the Vietnamese steel industry, please contact MRS Steel for expert assistance.

Recently, the Trade Remedies Department has just received information that Morocco has issued a conclusion to review safeguard duties on imported hot-rolled steel for products with HS codes 72.08, 72.11.13, 72.11.14, 72.11.19, 72.25.30, 72.25.40, 72.26.20.00.11, 72.26.20.20, 72.26.20.05, 72.26.20.052.72.26.20.00 .59, 72.26.91 and 72.26.99.980.00. Vietnam's hot-rolled steel continues to be exempt from Morocco's safeguard duty because of a developing country with negligible imports.1. Morocco imposed a safeguard duty of up to 25% on imported hot-rolled steelAccording to data from the General Department of Trade - Ministry of Industry and Trade of Morocco, the country's imported hot-rolled steel output reached 107,213 in 2018, an increase of 32,725 tons compared to 2014. In addition, only in the first 7 months of 2018, Morocco imported 79,371 tons of HRC, equal to 74% of the total output of the previous year. The massive import of hot-rolled steel pushed domestic manufacturers to bankruptcy when production and consumption of hot-rolled steel plates decreased by 19.4% and 28% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.Faced with concerns about dumping by foreign importers causing difficulties for the domestic steel market, Moroccan authorities have initiated a safeguard investigation into hot rolled steel imported into the country on May 29, 2019. The products under investigation fall under the following HS code groups: 7208, 7211.13, 7211.14, 7211.19, 7225.30, 7225.40, 7226.20.00.11, 7226.20.00.21, 7226.20.00.30, 7226.20. 00.40, 7226.20.00.51, 7226.20.00.52, 7226.20.00.59, 7226.91, 7226.99.90.91 and 7226.99.90.99.On October 22, 2019, the Moroccan government announced the imposition of a temporary safeguard duty of 25% on imported hot-rolled steel plates, effective for 200 days. After the sunset review, on June 19, 2020, the Moroccan government imposed a definitive anti-dumping duty on products with the above HS code group for a period of 3 years at a duty rate of 25%.Some developing countries, including Vietnam, are exempt from duty because of their negligible import volume. On May 3, 2022, Morocco sent a notice to the WTO approving a request to reduce the safeguard duty rate on imported HRC products by 1% each subsequent year.2. Vietnam hot rolled steel is not subject to Morocco's safeguard dutyOn May 25, 2023, Morocco conducted a sunset review of safeguard measures for imported hot rolled steel products and decided to maintain the duty rate of 23% from June 19, 2023, to June 18, 2026, but reduce 1% each subsequent year. However, Vietnam continues to be excluded from the safeguard measure because of a developing country with negligible import volume.According to World Trade Organization (WTO) statistics, by the end of 2021, Morocco has conducted 17 anti-dumping investigations and 12 global safeguard cases against imports into the country. 3. Advantages of importing hot rolled steel from VietnamVietnam has a self-sufficient source of hot rolled steel to serve domestic and export demand with a total production capacity of 12.8 million tons/year. All products are manufactured according to modern continuous casting and rolling production lines, which can reach a minimum thickness of 1.2 - 2mm to meet many international standards such as JIS, MS, SAE, BS, EN,...Some fastidious markets such as Europe, the United States, Australia, the UK,... are significant for the certificate of origin, so the autonomy of hot-rolled steel produced in Vietnam has opened up many export opportunities across countries.In addition to product quality, importing hot rolled steel from Vietnam also has the advantage of cost optimization due to cheap labor and abundant raw materials. Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs said that steel export output in April 2023 reached 973,549 tons of iron and steel, reaching 812 million USD, up 11.4% and 18% respectively over the previous month. In the first 4 months of 2023, Vietnam exported 3.25 million tons of iron and steel with a value of 2.52 billion USD, up 0.6% in volume.Importing hot-rolled steel from Vietnam into Morocco is exempt from safeguard duty, helping Moroccan importers access an ample HRC supply at a better price than other exporting countries. For all inquiries about the Vietnam steel market, please contact MRS Steel via Email at vanloc@mrssteel.com.vn for 24/7 support.