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A new crisis is brewing in the Red Sea, one of the world's vital trade routes, with the potential to disrupt supply chains and drive up oil prices and inflation. This comes at a time when economic growth is slowing down.Red Sea - Important Maritime TransportationAs one of the crucial maritime routes, it accounts for approximately 15% of global maritime transportation volume. The Red Sea shows no signs of easing tensions, especially as recent Houthi warnings indicate a potential expansion of their targets in the region if the United States launches a campaign against their forces.The mentioned developments come shortly after Washington announced the formation of a coalition comprising various countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain,... to address Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Simultaneously, this coalition has deployed military assets to counter missile and drone attacks.Conflict in the Red Sea and the Risk of an International Transportation CrisisThe Suez Canal is currently the shortest maritime route connecting Asia and Europe, accounting for approximately 15% of global maritime traffic. The conflict in the Red Sea has a significant impact on the global transportation and trade situation. This route is closely linked to the Suez Canal, meaning that ships avoiding the Red Sea also have to steer clear of the crucial route through the Suez Canal. This canal is one of the seven critical chokepoints for global transportation.The drone and missile attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen on vessels navigating the Red Sea are forcing global shippers to reroute their journeys around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa. This redirection extends the sea travel time by an additional 10–14 days. The harsh weather and frequent rough seas at the Cape of Good Hope and the Mozambique Channel result in faster fuel consumption, leading to increased fuel costs. Additionally, vessels face numerous challenges, including fuel replenishment, cargo restocking, customs issues, overloading and inadequate infrastructure at African ports.These wars are creating a significant risk of disruption to transportation activities through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, leading to increased shipping costs for various types of vessels, including tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers, thereby indirectly supporting the recovery of oil prices. Additionally, ships passing through the Red Sea are facing significantly higher conflict-risk insurance premiums, with current fees having surged by fivefold. Meanwhile, many transportation experts believe that disruptions in routes may lead to a situation where ships are in the wrong position and containers are misplaced, resulting in port congestion.In the face of the complex developments in the Red Sea and economic risks, the United States, the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and several countries, including Yemen, have issued a joint statement condemning Houthi interference in maritime rights and freedoms.If the “Red Sea crisis” persists for only a short period, consumers may not notice much, except for possibly higher energy prices. However, if the situation prolongs, it not only affects maritime transportation but also poses a risk of uncontrollable inflation impacting the world.

According to the latest data from the General Department of Customs of Vietnam, Vietnam's scrap steel imports volume in the past November unexpectedly reached 392,189 tons, a 25.8% increase compared to the previous month (over 312,000 tons of scrap in October). Cumulatively, in the 11 months of 2023, the total imported scrap amounted to 3.87 million tons, experiencing a slight decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period last year (3.96 million tons).Japan remains be the largest supplier of scrap steel to Vietnam in 2023Japan has consistently maintained its position as the primary provider of Vietnam scrap steel imports since 2018. In November alone, Japan supplied Vietnam with 212,438 tons of scrap steel, a remarkable increase of 241.4% compared to the same period last year. For the cumulative 11 months of 2023, the imported scrap volume from Japan reached over 1.436 million tons, constituting more than 40% of Vietnam's total scrap steel imports. In comparison to the same period last year, the import volume for the first 11 months of this year increased by 16%. Notably, Vietnam has focused on sustaining and enhancing its supply of scrap steel from Japan, despite the upward trend in scrap steel prices from Japan, which, as of December 2023, has reached $348 per ton in export prices.The imported scrap steel volume of Vietnam from January to November 2023Besides Japan, the United States stands as the second-largest market with a consistently high volume of scrap steel imports each month. Specifically, in November, Vietnam imported 48,515 tons of scrap steel from the United States, marking a 30.9% increase compared to the same period last year. Overall, for the first 11 months of 2023, the import volume of scrap steel from the United States reached 874,693 thousand tons, showing a slight 3% increase compared to the same period in 2022.Additionally, in the list of primary suppliers of scrap steel to Vietnam in November, Hong Kong and Australia were also notable contributors, with volumes reaching 38,874 tons (a 49% increase compared to the same period) and 9,265 tons (a remarkable 241.4% increase compared to the same period last year), respectively. In the first 11 months of 2023, Hong Kong's total export volume of scrap steel to Vietnam reached 377,303 tons, experiencing a slight 1.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. Similarly, Australia's supplied volume of scrap steel to the Vietnamese market for the first 11 months reached 236,266 tons, reflecting a 16% decrease compared to the same period.The demand for Vietnam’s scrap steel imports is expected rise in DecemberThe unexpected surge in scrap steel imports has been surprising, given that Vietnamese steel producers have largely maintained stable scrap imports over the past 10 months due to a prolonged slowdown in the domestic real estate sector. While some factories have reduced capacity and prioritized domestic scrap sourcing, larger-scale facilities continue to require substantial raw material imports. These factories anticipate a resurgence in steel demand after the lunar holiday, contributing to the anticipated growth in scrap steel imports in December. Another factor contributing to the increase of Vietnam's scrap steel imports comes from the country's recent open foreign policy. Many steel items, especially imported scrap steel, have seen a significant surge, partly to meet the needs of Vietnamese manufacturers and also due to the advantages of enjoying a 0% tax rate coupled with the removal of trade protection measures.The substantial increase in import demand has positioned Vietnam as a significant player in the global scrap steel import market this year. This strategic move not only helps meet domestic demand, especially for large-scale steel plants requiring extensive raw materials to maintain production and capacity stability, but also serves as a strategy to strengthen Vietnam's position in the international steel market. Through this approach, Vietnam can demonstrate its strength and competitiveness in the field of raw materials and steel production.

As one of the first steel conglomerates in the United States, US Steel has played a crucial role in the development of the country's steel industry. However, currently, US Steel has been acquired by Japan's Nippon Steel for $14 billion USD.US Steel was founded in 1901 by some of America's most prominent tycoons, including Andrew Carnegie, J.P. Morgan, and Charles Schwab. The company played a vital role in the recovery of the American industry after the Great Depression and World War II. In 2022, US Steel ranked as the 24th largest steel producer globally and the second-largest in the United States, following Nucor Corporation.In recent times, the stocks of US Steel, based in Pittsburgh, have been performing poorly after several quarters of declining revenue and profits, making the company an attractive acquisition target for competitors. On December 18, 2023, Nippon Steel announced an agreement with US Steel to acquire the company for $14.1 billion USD. This deal positions Nippon Steel to expand global crude steel capacity toward the goal of 100 million tons. This strategic move comes after Nippon Steel outbid competing rivals, including Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., in an auction.According to the World Steel Association, in 2022, Nippon Steel's production of high-quality crude steel reached 44.37 million tons, ranking fourth globally. Therefore, the acquisition of US Steel will elevate Nippon Steel to the third position in global steel production. This represents a significant step for Nippon Steel in its efforts to strengthen its position in the steel industry and enhance production capabilities on a global scale.Accordingly, after announcing the acquisition of the US Steel Group, Nippon Steel's stocks experienced a nearly 5% decrease. The stock decline occurred as shares of the steel manufacturer based in Tokyo opened with an excess of sellers, leading to a trading price of around 3,085 yen, marking a 4.7% decrease compared to the previous day's closing value.The acquisition takes place at a time when the steel industry is facing several challenges, including fluctuating demand and the need for technological advancements to reduce carbon emissions. Nippon Steel's move to acquire US Steel is expected to create a synergistic strength that could lead to more efficient production and help ensure a more stable supply of raw materials for Nippon Steel.US Steel has announced that the transaction with Nippon is expected to conclude in either the second or third quarter of 2024, depending on regulatory approval. However, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, an agency that carefully examines transactions to identify potential national security risks, is expected to reassess this deal. If the agreement is not approved in this case, Nippon will owe US Steel USD 565 million.Here is the latest information on Nippon Steel's acquisition of the US Steel plant in the United States. However, there is still no official result in this matter. Stay tuned to MRS Steel, as we will provide the most up-to-date and accurate information on this transaction for our readers.

Nam Kim's business activities are expected to benefit directly when steel demand in a series of key export markets is forecast to grow strongly in 2024.1. Nam Kim steel exports will grow strongly by the end of 2023According to the latest report of the World Steel Association, global steel demand in 2023 is estimated to increase by 1.8% compared to 2022, a positive improvement compared to the decrease of 3.3% in 2022. In 2024, global steel demand is expected to continue to increase by 1.9%, reaching 1.84 billion tons with main export markets from the European Union (up 5.8% compared to 2023), India (up 7.7%) and the ASEAN region (up 5.2% compared to 2023).This creates favorable conditions for several Vietnamese steel enterprises, especially Nam Kim Steel Joint Stock Company. NKG is one of the largest steel export brands in Vietnam with strength in galvanized steel products. More than 60% of the group's consumption comes from key markets such as the EU, ASEAN and Australia.Besides, Nam Kim Steel is enjoying the lowest anti-dumping duty rate in many Vietnamese steel import markets such as Canada, Mexico, Australia and Malaysia.Latest data shows that Nam Kim Steel's main export markets are all in the group with a positive recovery in steel output in the first 10 months of 2023 like the EU region (up 86.2% over the same period in 2022) and Australia (up 9.1%).Regarding future development orientation, Nam Kim Steel is focusing on exploiting the EU, Australia, ASEAN markets, then the US due to barriers of tax rates of up to 25% as well as high Vietnam-US freight rates.Currently, Nam Kim Steel is in the top 3 enterprises with the largest market share in Vietnam (accounting for 17.3%). Notably, for steel pipe products, Nam Kim Steel is experiencing continuous market share growth in recent years. In 2022, NKG's steel pipe consumption growth rate was 3 times higher than the growth rate of the entire industry, accounting for 7.4% of the entire market share.2. Vietnamese steel benefits from the gradual recovery of steel pricesThe business activities of Nam Kim in particular and steel businesses in general will continue to benefit from the recovery in domestic steel prices. After 19 consecutive price reductions in the first 9 months of 2023, steel prices of all types in Vietnam have begun to recover with 3 consecutive price increases since the end of November 2023. The Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) predicts that domestic steel prices may increase slightly in the near future with a range of 100,000 - 150,000 VND/ton.The reason for the increase in domestic steel prices comes from the increase in input costs (iron ore, electricity, steel scrap,...) along with a clear increase in world steel prices. Hot rolled steel prices in the US and EU from the beginning of October 2023 have increased by 1,146 USD/ton and 727 USD/ton, respectively. World construction steel prices also increased dramatically in early November 2023 when they surpassed 3,800 CNY/ton.Global steel prices increased mainly due to limited steel supply and prolonged delivery times due to the impact of military and political conflicts. At the same time, a series of steel furnaces in the EU temporarily stopped operating for maintenance while steel demand is still increasing. In addition, the Chinese government also promotes recovery of the real estate market, boosting demand for steel in the near future.

In November 2023, both production and consumption in Vietnam's steel industry experienced growth. Specifically, nationwide steel sales reached over 2.5 million tons, marking a 30% increase compared to the same period last year and reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, finished steel production reached 2.4 million tons, reflecting a 34.4% increase compared to the same period.The Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) reported an improvement in the consumption of finished steel in the domestic market in November compared to the previous month and the same period last year for most steel manufacturing and trading enterprises. In particular, sales of various steel types reached over 2.5 million tons, up 13% from the previous month and 30% compared to the same period in 2022. The growth in steel consumption has been consistent over several months, signaling a recovery for the steel industry. Meanwhile, the production of finished steel during this period amounted to 2.4 million tons, up 3% from October and 34.4% compared to the same period last year.In the first 11 months of the year, the steel industry produced 25 million tons of finished steel, down by 7.8% compared to the same period last year. Steel consumption reached 23.7 million tons, declining by 5.6% compared to the sales volume in the first 11 months of 2022. Specifically, steel exports during this period amounted to 7.4 million tons, marking a 29% increase compared to the same period.Hoa Phat, a leading enterprise in the steel industry, observed its highest sales volume since the beginning of the year. Specifically, sales of construction steel, hot-rolled coil (HRC) and steel billets reached 709,000 tons, marking a 12% increase from October. Notably, sales of high-quality construction steel by Hoa Phat during this period reached 410,000 tons, indicating a 21% surge compared to the same period last year.The company's representative stated that the domestic steel industry is on the rise due to the beginning of the construction season and is partly driven by policies encouraging the disbursement of public investment capital. According to the assessment by VSA, the sales volume of construction steel has increased, partly due to infrastructure projects such as the North-South expressway and the ongoing development of new airports, which have accelerated progress alongside several other projects.The steel industry has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent months, with steel companies continuously adjusting prices upward from November onwards. According to VSA, the consistent price hikes in steel are primarily due to the rising costs of raw materials used in steel production such as coal, iron ore, scrap steel and hot-rolled coils, showing no signs of slowing down.The selling prices of finished steel have been increasing at a slower pace compared to the rising costs of raw materials. This is one of the difficulties that the steel industry is facing.In the upcoming period, the price of this commodity is forecast to continue rising due to a narrow supply of iron ore, while construction demand is expected to increase. This will be an opportunity for the steel industry and steel stocks in 2024.

The global steel demand for wind turbines industry is expected to experience a significant surge of 45% over the next decade, driven by the escalating capacity and size of turbines. Specifically, the projected consumption output within the industry is anticipated to rise from 10.5 million tons in 2023 to 15.1 million tons by the year 2032.The trend in the steel demand for wind turbines sector in next decadeSteel has long been the primary material for constructing wind turbines due to its strong structural properties and corrosion resistance. Consequently, with the increasing shift towards renewable energy, the rising global steel consumption in the wind energy industry indicates a clear signal. As of 2023, the steel demand for wind turbines stands at 10.5 million tons and this figure is projected to surge by 45% in 2032 due to the growing capacity and size of turbines.Data on the development of wind turbine sizes is annually documented. According to this information, the average size of onshore and offshore wind turbines in projects recorded from 2019 to 2022 was 2.9MW and 6.2MW, respectively. In 2023, these figures experienced a significant increase, reaching 4.3MW for onshore and 9.2MW for offshore turbines. Notably, in offshore wind turbine projects, industry manufacturers are currently aiming to introduce the next generation of turbines with an average capacity ranging from 15 MW to 20MW, which is double the current average capacity.The steel demand for the offshore segment is believed to be significantly higher than that for onshore, with the steel consumption growth rate for onshore reaching only 32%, whereas for offshore, this figure rises to 101%. Typically, steel constitutes 80% of the composition of a wind turbine. However, offshore turbines require more steel. The reason is that the foundations of offshore wind turbines must be made of steel instead of concrete and cement used onshore because steel provides better corrosion resistance in a marine environment.Predictions for steel consumption scenarios in wind turbine projectsThe production of larger turbines will entail a higher demand for steel. Therefore, the steel consumption in the wind energy industry is anticipated to grow significantly with the following predicted scenarios over the next decade:Small Capacity Turbine ProjectsTurbines classified under the small capacity category typically have a capacity of 2MW for onshore types and 6.2MW for those installed offshore. Among the installed projects, these turbines constitute the largest market share, yet they have the lowest steel consumption. Specifically, the total steel demand for wind turbines over the next 10 years, starting from 2023, is estimated to reach 124.8 million tons. This is equivalent to consuming 107 tons of steel per 1 MW for onshore turbines and 119.5 tons of steel per 1 MW for offshore turbines.Medium Capacity Turbine ProjectsThe assumed scenario for the trend in steel consumption for medium-capacity turbines (3.45-5MW for onshore and 9MW for offshore) over the next decade is expected to reach 128.7 million tons. The projected steel consumption rate per MW is estimated to be 110 tons/MW for onshore and 125.8 tons/MW for offshore.Large Capacity Turbine ProjectsOver the ten-year period from 2023 to 2032, projects involving large-capacity turbines (6 MW-7.2 MW for onshore and 15 MW and above for offshore) are predicted to see rapid development, capturing a significant market share within five years, by the mid-decade. The total steel consumption for these projects is forecasted to reach 130 million tons, with a predicted steel consumption rate of 113 tons/MW for onshore and 132 tons/MW for offshore. With the future deployment strategies of large-capacity wind turbines in the energy sector, the anticipated surge in steel demand is expected to create expanded opportunities for global steel manufacturers. This trend signifies a broader scope of consumption beyond traditional sectors such as construction and automotive. The renewable energy sector, particularly the wind energy industry, continues to be one of the top potential markets for steel consumption, with clear indicators of continuous growth. To gain further insights into the steel applications in wind turbines, please refer to additional articles in our Steel Blog!