Short-range Outlook of the World Steel Industry 2023 - 2024
Steel NewsDate: 19-06-2023 by: Nhu Quynh
The World Steel Association has released its short-range outlook for steel demand (SRO) forecast for 2023 and 2024. Accordingly, in 2023, the demand for recovery in the steel industry will be 2.3%, and in 2024, it will be 1.7%.
Overview of the world steel industry
2022 has been a challenging year for the steel industry worldwide as it has been affected by the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation and rising interest rates, and China lockdowns due to the heavy impact of COVID-19.
These events have a massive impact on the steel industry as rising energy prices cause manufacturing industries to reduce output, causing disruptions to the global steel supply chain.
The above impacts, along with China's being affected by COVID-19, will limit the recovery of steel demand in 2023. In 2024, the growth of the steel industry will be impacted by countries with developing economies.
China - The world's leading steel industry
Due to the impact of the epidemic, in 2021 and 2022, China's steel demand fell sharply. For the first time in 25 years, China's real estate projects are in negative territory. This decline will seriously impact the steel industry and construction activities in 2023–2024.
In 2022, China's steel exports were relatively good, but production activity was weak. 2023–2024, the steel industry manufacturing sector is expected to recover. After falling 3.5% in 2022, China's total steel demand is expected to grow 2.0% in 2023; it is not expected to change in 2024.
In 2022, developed countries will have strongly recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Steel demand in these countries fell sharply due to reduced construction activity and infrastructure investment, inflation, rising energy costs, and the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine, especially in the EU and the US. The prospect of steel industry growth in 2023 is not favorable when it is still affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the EU is the directly affected area. Steel demand in developed countries is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2023 and recover 3.2% in 2024 after falling 7.9% in 2022.
In developing countries, the resilience of the steel industry is more challenged as rising inflation impacts the monetary tightening cycle. In the coming years, the economies of developing countries will face challenges from external factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and US monetary tightening. Despite many difficulties, the steel industry of emerging countries is still recovering under the influence of the government. After falling by 0.3% in 2022, steel demand in emerging economies will grow by 3.6% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024.
Vietnam is one of the countries with a developing economy. Under the influence of the government, Vietnam's steel industry gradually recovered after a series of days affected by COVID-19. Promoting investment in critical projects in the country is one of the bright spots for recovering the country's steel industry. Vietnamese steel enterprises also boosted their exports to potential markets to bring in foreign currency revenue and recover the steel market.